I can't let this election pass without some comment.   Not on the candidates or the parties or promises or debt (although Queensland has the biggest State debt now).   I'll stick to jobs, because both the majors assert they are the best at job creation, although the numbers don't support the promises.

Statistics tell us regional unemployment is higher than in the south east corner.   Research shows that big projects, like coal mines and roads, bring only a temporary boost to employment and do little for skill training or building bigger local small businesses.   Same comment applies to the cross river rail bridge too.

Unemployment Numbers

1. Over 40,000 people are unemployed in the eleven Queensland regions, an official unemployment rate of 7.2%.   Just 1,200 new jobs have been created in these regions in the last five years.

2. Around 100,000 are unemployed in SEQ, an unemployment rate of 5.8%.   Around 86,500 new jobs were created in SEQ, and I believe around 50% of these were in the public service.

We have heard forecasts from all Parties this month of 188,000 new jobs for Qld, of which 75% will be in SEQ.   This sounds optimistic, but let's see if it is supportable, or just like Homer Simpson who said "84.6% of statistics are made up".

Businesses

3. In the last Survey, Qld had almost 425,000 businesses.   Of these, 61% employed no other person (sole operators), 27% employed between 1 and 4 people, and only 613 businesses employed more than 200 people.

4. If we look at the types of businesses in Qld, construction comprises 73,000 or 17% of the total, real estate is 50,000 or 12%, and insurance and financial services has 35,000 or 8%.

That is, 37% could benefit directly or the most from new construction projects.

Incomes

5. The median (50% of numbers are above this and 50% below) household income in regional Qld is $67,500 and it's $80,000 in the SE corner.

6. Over the next few years, perhaps 10% of new jobs in the regions will be higher paying jobs, and around 75% in lower paying positions.   In SEQ, over 50% could be expected to exceed the median income.

The "Projects"

There will certainly be businesses that will benefit directly from new construction, and there could be increased incomes from them too (the ones mentioned by the Premier are heavily unionised so no doubt there will be higher pay even before they start).

No surprise then that the projects announced are larger than the average.   But, no doubt there must be a lot more debt for the Government in providing the start-up assistance.   There are never any explanations given for the huge (read incredible) economic and social benefits promised, and the estimates of budget and costs just don't stand up to examination, assuming you can get access to the detail.

Finally

I don't know if you ever watched an ABC series called "Utopia".   It was about a Federal government department that was supposed to identify big projects for the nation, but nothing ever happened apart from wasting of public money and photo opportunities for politicians.   Hmmmm!

Queensland largely has small businesses, and many of the people have limited or smaller incomes.   The outlook promised is more than questionable, especially regarding income growth, or better paid occupations, or number of jobs.

This is not a rant against mining, or resources, or building more empty buildings.   Why can't Queensland take control of projects that will have better payoffs, and not allow foreign residents to control state infrastructure yet demand taxpayer subsidies for their (probably very profitable) projects?

Much of the argument I have heard from politicians asserts that the boom times will continue, there can be no bust while they are in control because big projects have such incredible benefits, more debt will improve everything (didn't work for John Keynes in the depression though!), and the other lot are probably worse than the speakers' mob.

For me, small business needs to be encouraged and allowed to flourish, which will create more jobs and better incomes.   Big projects are just pie in the sky for most businesses and workers.

I really doubt the voters are as stupid as the politicians think, so it is possible there could be a large protest vote in this State election, and probably also for the next Federal election.