Better Conditions Ahead but also Clever Scams
Welcome to 2018! To set the tone for the year I'd like to consider 3 issues, and show how they fit together.
Consumer & Business Confidence
Consumer confidence is at a 4 year high (best since 2013). (Westpac - Melbourne Institute) . Business confidence is on the rise too (Roy Morgan) . And why wouldn't confidence be high? House prices are holding, interest rates are low, official unemployment rates are low, and stock prices are strong (good for superannuation returns).
These are encouraging, and there are several positive factors driving the numbers. For business though, will this sentiment translate into consumer spending? It's up to businesses to provide the best offerings to win over hearts and wallets. Good products and service are always key to attracting customers, but in the end, spending will be contingent on family finances, and Confidence Indices can be useful for predicting future demand and determining business strategy.
Scams
Totally Workwear in Brisbane just lost $76,000. Scammers infiltrated their accounting system and changed the banking details on a number of their suppliers so the remittances went to the scammer's account. Luckily, TW was covered by insurance, otherwise there was no chance of recovery. The banks are not responsible, the major fault is the customer's system (however, did the banks have proper ID checks to open an account for the scammer?).
The ATO has put out another notice advising of more scams/fake messages purporting to be from the ATO. Some aren't a scam but if they ask you to 'urgently' download something or clink a link, it is likely to result in the download of malware, which could lock up your computer (requires a payment in Bitcoin to release, but no certainty it will happen) or instal malicious software. The ATO has a special area on its web site for 'Scam Alerts'. Check here if uncertain:
CryptoCurrencies (CC)
I can't do justice to this subject in just a couple of paragraphs. CC's have had an astounding run lately in recognition and price. However, CC's are just one part of the Blockchain (which seems to be amazing technology and likely to cause great disruption in many industries).
The point here is that trading in BitCoin and any of the other 1,100 odd CC's is certainly taxable (tax is based on purchase and sale contracts, not growth in value) and seems at this time to be essentially speculative (prices appear to be based on supply and demand and even fear-of-missing-out, not the underlying business proposition of the Coin issuer).
I have read of a number of scams and failures in this area already, it is so unregulated it has to be a prime target. It's not possible to change the blockchain record (I've read that the system behind distributed technology is reliable and one of the key points of competitive advantage), but the risks seem to be around the settlements and exchanges. Know what you're doing and who you're dealing with.
The broad message is that confidence is the best it has been for some years and this should be good for business this year. But always be alert for scams and malicious software, check everything, arrange insurance, back-up computer files. The grubs will certainly be seeking to take advantage of better conditions.