This is a bit of a look forward, to next year, and where the economy might go. 2014 was a year of missed economic opportunities with a government fixated on the budget deficit and debt problems, which hurt business and consumer confidence and in turn kept a dampener on growth.
There were some good results over the last 12 months though:
- housing prices averaged growth of 8 - 9%, with Sydney and Melbourne leading, and SEQ now starting to catch up
- building approvals kept rising, dwelling starts were the highest in 19 years, and home sales numbers were up about 10%, including a big rise in the June quarter
- superannuation fund managers reported one-year returns around 12%
- unemployment has remained fairly steady, average 6.5% but job vacancy advertising has increased in the past 3 months
- the rate of household savings has stayed above the long-term average.
Looking at 2015, what might be possible?
- the Reserve Bank expects growth to be in the range 2.5% to 3.5% (2014 was a little under 2.5%) and Westpac's economist expects 3.2%
- if above 3%, unemployment reduces and consumer spending increases
- business and consumer confidence should continue to cautiously increase, which leads to increased investment and spending
- inflation will stay low
- interest rates also likely to stay low, but perhaps starting to rise later in 2015
- exports will benefit from a falling exchange rate
- the latest Westpac/Melbourne Institute Leading Index (this indicates the likely pace of economic activity for up to 9 months in advance) says the indicators rose in October, suggesting a better economy in the June quarter next year.
The economic fundamentals are sound, so there is no reason not to be optimistic. But,