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What About 2015?

Cameron Finlay • November 24, 2014

This is a bit of a look forward, to next year, and where the economy might go.  2014 was a year of missed economic opportunities with a government fixated on the budget deficit and debt problems, which hurt business and consumer confidence and in turn kept a dampener on growth.

There were some good results over the last 12 months though:

- housing prices averaged growth of 8 - 9%, with Sydney and Melbourne leading, and SEQ now starting to catch up

- building approvals kept rising, dwelling starts were the highest in 19 years, and home sales numbers were up about 10%, including a big rise in the June quarter

- superannuation fund managers reported one-year returns around 12%

- unemployment has remained fairly steady, average 6.5% but job vacancy advertising has increased in the past 3 months

- the rate of household savings has stayed above the long-term average.

Looking at 2015, what might be possible?

- the Reserve Bank expects growth to be in the range 2.5% to 3.5% (2014 was a little under 2.5%) and Westpac's economist expects 3.2%

- if above 3%, unemployment reduces and consumer spending increases

- business and consumer confidence should continue to cautiously increase, which leads to increased investment and spending

- inflation will stay low

- interest rates also likely to stay low, but perhaps starting to rise later in 2015

- exports will benefit from a falling exchange rate

- the latest Westpac/Melbourne Institute Leading Index (this indicates the likely pace of economic activity for up to 9 months in advance) says the indicators rose in October, suggesting a better economy in the June quarter next year.

The economic fundamentals are sound, so there is no reason not to be optimistic.  But, Australia does not operate in a vacuum, and global changes can impact our markets.   Research, plan, analyse, and monitor your industry and market.   Also, understand that some sectors, even in the same industry, might not be performing at the 'average' level.   You can't control that, you can only control what you do.   Demographics, supply and demand still drive the markets, and sometimes emotion is more powerful than logic.

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